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ISSUE 190EVENING
United Kingdom, Probabilistic Forecasting, AI Evaluation and Decision Support
A London forecasting bot beat the humans and immediately met venture capital
Mantic finished ahead of every human in a short-horizon forecasting tournament and raised $25 million. One scoreboard can reveal progress without settling the harder question of whether the forecasts improve real decisions.
ISSUE 166MORNING
AI Forecasting, Calibration and Decision Evidence
Mantic beat the human forecasters, but the scoreboard needs context
A London startup finished ahead of every human in a public forecasting tournament and raised $25 million. One leaderboard can establish a result without proving a universal forecasting machine.